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Melbourne Cup 2012 Wrap

November 6, 2012

What happened to all the Melbourne Cup favourites?  Are they still running? A total debacle of a race. Being trackside for the 36th consecutive year, it was the flattest atmosphere ever. I didn’t hear as much as a whimper. Normally some bozo has had $10 on one the first three. It was a total wipeout. Of all my selections in win bets and trifectas, Mount Athos did best in fifth. Even the media, I can’t recall one single pundit placing any of the top 3 of Green Moon, Fiorente and Jakkalberry. Ironically, Gai Waterhouse, trainer of Fiorente, said she respected Green Moon the most as dangers to her runners.

The worst part of this years Melbourne Cup was the lack of theatre. There wasn’t even a hope of one of the more favoured or popular horses winning. None of the horses in lead pack were familiar. Normally you at least have a popular horse or a favourite in the pack fighting for a win to give a semi-thrill up your leg. Nothing. It was dead – the whole race. I’m calling it the worst Melbourne Cup ever!

The only excuse for some of the fancied runners like Dunden, Americain, Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos was the moderate pace. It did make it a sit and sprint, favouring the leaders.

A major reminder is that European horses don’t like fast ground either. Even with a bit of rain, Flemington came up as a “good 3”. Even those horses that do like it good, European good ground is Australian soft. That wiped all except Mount Athos (5th).

Another pattern is the Caulfield Cup is a dud form race these days, even in this “strong year”. Of the horses that finished 1, 3, 4, 5 & 6, Dunaden finished 14th in the Melbourne Cup, Lights Of Heaven 16th, Americain 11th, My Quest For Peace 10th and Zabeelionaire  22nd.  Only Jackleberry, who flopped in the CC in 13th, came through for third.

The only interest from my predictions (below) was the notion of disqualifying horses that ran in previous years. Do that, and you land at Mount Athos (5th), Green Moon (1st), Kelinni (4th) and Ethiopia (24th) as top picks.

Can I say that I hate Gai Waterhouse? I had a dream her stupid horse Fiortente, who she just bought for over $1 million, won. There’s a recurring dream where I often have MCup dreams that totally unknown horses win. This time Fiorente was at least recognised. It came 2nd in the actual race. If it had of won, I’d have punched Gai because the only reason I didn’t nibble at it was because it’s Gai. She’s so bad in Melbourne. God I hate Gai! I hate stupid, dopey looking son with his dopey ads for his betting agency. Sick of seeing it all.

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These were my pre-race thoughts…

I’ll stick with Dunaden for my win bet. It’s difficult to separate the first five faves. History says that horses run in a Melbourne Cup already rarely win in subsequent years. Dunaden, American, Red Cadeaux and Malucky Day are in that group. The last winner to win again was Makybe Diva in 05, with only 3 others managing to do it in history, while the last non-winner to win later was Empire Rose in 1988 (after 2nd in 87). The last and only winner to win 2 years after a win (exc MDiva who won 3 in a row) is Peter Pan in 1934. Americain is trying to achieve that.

If you disqualify all of those above, then you’re left with Mount Athos, Kelinni & Ethiopia in the top 8 fancies. This year is a rare year with so many return horses, so odds are one will break that rule.

I’ll include Dun, Am, MA, MD and Eth in a 5-horse trifecta, while doing Dunaden+Americain in a tri 1st or 2nd with the field in third. I’ll do a box first-4 of Dun, Am, MA and Eth.

At big odds, I’ll have a nibble on Cavalryman and Tac De Boistron.

May the horse be with you.

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From → Melbourne Cup

One Comment
  1. Roizo permalink

    The Melbourne Cup is dead!

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