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USA 2012 Presidential Election Prediction

November 6, 2012

Barack Obama should squeak in. He seems likely to hold the key state of Ohio, and that will kill Mitt Romney’s chances unless he snags Wisconsin or Michigan or something else leaning Democrat. The early marker will be Pennsylvania. While Romney’s unlike to win it, if he runs it close, that suggests a swing against Obama will be on, right through to Ohio and Colorado. That swing in PA naturally presumes Romney will be winning fellow eastern states of Florida and Virginia, as the polls suggest he will. If he wins PA, it’s an early night and a mass repudiation of Obama. If he’s struggling in FL, and especially losing it, it’s also an early night (or afternoon for us in Australia) simply on the mathematics.

Note that there’s a 6% chance of a tie! If that happens, congress decides. The house will easily represent the most of Republican states so will pick Romney while the senate will stay Democrat so pick Joe Biden. That’s the definition of true bipartisanship!

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From → Politics

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